Jack pine barrens were once common in fire-adapted, dry sand prairie ecosystems in northern Lower Michigan, where open barrens dominated by grasses, forbs, and low shrubs persisted within dense jack pine forests. This structure was historically maintained by frequent, stand-replacing wildfires prior to 20th century fire suppression. Suppression of wildfires has concomitantly reduced the extent of young jack pine forests in the region, which comprise the majority of breeding grounds for federally endangered Kirtland’s warblers. Modern forest management prioritizes provision of Kirtland’s warbler habitat through extensive jack pine plantations, although barrens are rarely included in management plans, and the landscape has become increasingly altered. Barrens act as refugia for rarer grassland species and potentially as fuel breaks, facilitating wildfire management in a populated, fire-prone region while maintaining landscape heterogeneity. However, changing climate conditions may preclude natural barrens creation due to changes in temperature and precipitation that could encourage woody plant encroachment. We used the spatially-explicit, forest landscape simulation model LANDIS-II to model the capacity of barrens to act as natural fuel breaks on the landscape. We also simulated effects of altered climate using projected climate scenarios to quantify potential changes in barrens distributions. Landscapes simulated using 30-year normal (PRISM) for temperature and precipitation were compared with simulations using the Hadley Climate Centre A1FI scenario. We found that areas with low primary productivity, interpreted as barrens, can act as fuel breaks by preventing future fires in those areas for decades, and can therefore aid fire management. However, the relationship between low biomass and severe fires was less apparent when influenced by climate change. Overall, high severity fires were more common under altered climatic conditions even with reduced biomass across the landscape. Studies that investigate effects of climate change on barrens distribution and their ability to mediate wildfires may impact management practices in the region as climate change, fire management, and wildlife habitat continue to influence management decisions.