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The current study presents a statistical model for assessing the skill of fire danger indices and for forecasting the distribution of the expected numbers of large fires over a given region and for the upcoming week. The procedure permits development of daily maps that forecast, for the forthcoming week and within federal lands, percentiles of the distributions of (i) number of ignitions; (ii) number of fires above a given size; (iii) conditional probabilities of fires greater than a specified size, given ignition. As an illustration, we used the methods to study the skill of the Fire Potential Index-an index that incorporates satellite and surface observations to map fire potential at a national scale-in forecasting distributions of large fires.
Cataloging Information
- dead fuels
- distribution
- fire business
- fire danger rating
- fire distribution
- fire management
- fire management planning
- fire mapping
- fire size
- fire suppression
- fuel moisture
- human caused fires
- ignition
- lightning caused fires
- NFP - National Fire Plan
- remote sensing
- semi-parametric logistic regression
- spatial mapping
- statistical analysis
- statistical comparisons of fire danger indices
- vegetation surveys
- wildfires
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