Forecasting distributions of large federal-lands fires utilizing satellite and gridded weather information
Document Type: Journal Article
Author(s): Haiganoush K. Preisler; Robert E. Burgan; Jeff Eidenshink; Jacqueline M. Klaver; Robert W. Klaver
Publication Year: 2009

Cataloging Information

  • dead fuels
  • distribution
  • fire business
  • fire danger rating
  • fire distribution
  • fire management
  • fire management planning
  • fire mapping
  • fire size
  • fire suppression
  • fuel moisture
  • human caused fires
  • ignition
  • lightning caused fires
  • NFP - National Fire Plan
  • remote sensing
  • semi-parametric logistic regression
  • spatial mapping
  • statistical analysis
  • statistical comparisons of fire danger indices
  • vegetation surveys
  • wildfires
Record Maintained By:
Record Last Modified: June 1, 2018
FRAMES Record Number: 8322
Tall Timbers Record Number: 23942
TTRS Location Status: In-file
TTRS Call Number: Journals-I
TTRS Abstract Status: Okay, Fair use, Reproduced by permission

This bibliographic record was either created or modified by the Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy and is provided without charge to promote research and education in Fire Ecology. The E.V. Komarek Fire Ecology Database is the intellectual property of the Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy.


The current study presents a statistical model for assessing the skill of fire danger indices and for forecasting the distribution of the expected numbers of large fires over a given region and for the upcoming week. The procedure permits development of daily maps that forecast, for the forthcoming week and within federal lands, percentiles of the distributions of (i) number of ignitions; (ii) number of fires above a given size; (iii) conditional probabilities of fires greater than a specified size, given ignition. As an illustration, we used the methods to study the skill of the Fire Potential Index-an index that incorporates satellite and surface observations to map fire potential at a national scale-in forecasting distributions of large fires.

Online Link(s):
Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Burgan, Robert E.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Klaver, Jacqueline M.; Klaver, Robert W. 2009. Forecasting distributions of large federal-lands fires utilizing satellite and gridded weather information. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18(5):508-516.

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