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Type: Journal Article
Author(s): Joint Fire Science Program
Publication Date: 2009

Accurate regional weather forecasts are critical to successful wildfire operations and prescribed burns. Computer forecast models produce indispensable information about atmospheric conditions, but they can also generate some significant inaccuracies, most notably in relative humidity, ambient temperature, wind speed and direction. Accurate forecasts of these weather components are vital for successful assessment of fire danger. This project sought to improve the accuracy of forecast models, like MM5, which was used until recently by the USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Center to predict fire weather over the western U.S. This project increased forecast accuracy by coupling MM5 with a new forecast model called FORFLUX. The combination, known as MFF, improves accuracy by measuring how much moisture will end up in the atmosphere as a result of ecosystem processes taking place at the earth's surface. MFF improves weather forecasts by providing more data about of the interactions between vegetation, soil and atmosphere and their resulting impacts on regional fire weather.

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Link to this document (702 KB; pdf)
Citation: Joint Fire Science Program. 2009. From the ground up: new fire weather model boosts accuracy. JFSP Fire Science Brief. February 2009(41): 1-6.

Cataloging Information

Topics:
Regions:
Alaska    California    Eastern    Great Basin    Hawaii    Northern Rockies    Northwest    Rocky Mountain    Southern    Southwest    National
Keywords:
  • fire weather forecast
  • FORFLUX
  • MM5 mesoscale model
  • weather prediction models
JFSP Project Number(s):
  • 03-1-3-02
Record Last Modified:
Record Maintained By: FRAMES Staff (https://www.frames.gov/contact)
FRAMES Record Number: 7942