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Type: Journal Article
Author(s): Jessica S. Wan; Douglas S. Hamilton; Natalie M. Mahowald
Publication Date: 2021

Uncertainty in pre‐industrial aerosol emissions, including fires, is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in estimating anthropogenic radiative forcing. Here we quantify the range in aerosol forcing associated with uncertainty in the location and magnitude of pre‐industrial fire emissions in a climate model based on four emission estimates. With varied emission location and magnitude amongst the fire estimates, we find the change in aerosol forcing from present‐day to pre‐industrial is between ‐0.4 and 0.3 W/m2 for direct radiative forcing and between ‐1.8 and 0.6 W/m2 for cloud albedo forcing. Altering only the spatial distribution of pre‐industrial fires for a fixed magnitude adds a previously unaccounted 25% uncertainty to the total aerosol radiative forcing range. Future studies must account for the uncertainty in the spatial distribution of fire and other aerosol emissions as regional differences contribute substantial additional uncertainty to anthropogenic radiative forcing estimates and the resultant climate sensitivity.

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Citation: Wan, Jessica S.; Hamilton, Douglas S.; Hahowald, Natalie M. 2021. Importance of uncertainties in the spatial distribution of pre‐industrial wildfires for estimating aerosol radiative forcing. Geophysical Research 48(6):e2020GL089758.

Cataloging Information

Regions:
Alaska    California    Eastern    Great Basin    Hawaii    Northern Rockies    Northwest    Rocky Mountain    Southern    Southwest    National
Keywords:
  • aerosol radiative forcing
  • fires
  • pre-industrial aerosol
  • regional aerosol impacts
Record Last Modified:
Record Maintained By: FRAMES Staff (https://www.frames.gov/contact)
FRAMES Record Number: 62791