There is growing concern that populations of fire-adapted species around the world are at risk of extirpation due to 20th century fire exclusion (i.e. senescence risk). Concurrently, increasing fire activity in many regions is prompting concern that repeated, short-interval fire poses a risk to young stands before trees reach reproductive maturity (i.e. immaturity risk). Conceptual models assessing vulnerability to both risks exist, yet there is a lack of empirically-based studies that assess the effects of anthropogenically-altered fire regimes across the entire range of a fire-adapted species. We used geospatial data on fire occurrence (1900-2015) and a systematic sample of recently re-measured (∼2005-2015) forest inventory plots across the range of a serotinous conifer, knobcone pine (Pinus attenuata), in California and southwestern Oregon, U.S.A. to assess the relative threat of immaturity and senescence risk. We base our assessment on: (1) recent trends in area burned, (2) geographic variability and changes in stand-scale population structure, and (3) patterns of local colonization, extirpation, and population change. The area burned across the species range was lowest during the early and mid-20th century and increased in the early 1980s. Approximately 39% of the range burned between 1984 and 2015 and fire rotation was 81 years for the 25-year period ending in 2015. During this period, approximately 6% of the range of knobcone pine experienced repeated fire, and only 4% of the reburned area (∼0.25% of the entire range) experienced multiple fires at an interval less than 10 years. Most populations of knobcone pine currently exist in a mature or decadent state and we found evidence of recent senescence-related extirpation across approximately 15% of its range. However, we also observed a cumulative expansion of knobcone pine during the last decade, and the rate of colonization (less than half of which was associated with fire) was almost double that of extirpation. Despite high rates of colonization and expansion of knobcone pine in response to recent fires, vulnerability to extirpation varies geographically and remains high in some parts of the species range where wildfire activity has been low. This study provides a rare empirically-based look at the contribution of extirpation and colonization to the range-wide dynamics of a serotinous tree. Our findings underlie the importance of recognizing the different temporal and spatial scales at which contemporary disturbance regimes threaten fire-adapted species, and highlight the potential for alternative pathways of persistence and expansion of serotinous species.