North American forest futures 2018-2090: scenarios for building a more resilient forest sector
Document Type: Journal Article
Author(s): David N. Bengston; Jonathan Peck; Robert L. Olson; Melissa Barros; Richard A. Birdsey; Daniel R. Williams; Juan Carlos Leyva Reyes; Francisco J. Zamudio-Sanchez
Publication Year: 2018

Cataloging Information

  • climate change
  • fire management
  • forest management
  • megafires
  • North America
  • resilience
  • wildfires
Record Maintained By:
Record Last Modified: May 24, 2018
FRAMES Record Number: 55932


North American forests and forest management institutions are experiencing a wide range of significant ecological disturbances and socioeconomic changes, which point to the need for enhanced resilience. A critical capacity for resilience in institutions is strategic foresight. This article reports on a project of the North American Forest Commission to use Futures Research to enhance the resilience of forest management institutions in North America. The Aspirational Futures Method was used to develop four alternative scenarios for the future of North American forests and forestry agencies: (1) an extrapolation of current trends into the expectable future titled Stressed Forests, (2) a scenario of growing desperation titled Megadisturbances Call for Military Intervention, (3) a high aspiration future titled High Tech Transformation and Cooperation, and (4) an alternative pathway to a highly preferable future titled Cultural Transformation Embraces Indigenous Values. These scenarios will be used in discussions and futures exercises with forestry leaders to develop foresight and assure that plans are responsive to the challenges and opportunities ahead.

Online Link(s):
Bengston, David N.; Peck, Jonathan; Olson, Robert; Barros, Melissa; Birdsey, Richard A.; Williams, Daniel R.; Leyva Reyes, Juan Carlos; José Zamudio, Francisco. 2018. North American forest futures 2018-2090: scenarios for building a more resilient forest sector. World Futures Review 10(2):152-169.