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Type: Journal Article
Author(s): Matthew D. Hurteau; Anthony Leroy Westerling; Christine Wiedinmyer; Benjamin P. Bryant
Publication Date: February 2014

Changing climatic conditions are influencing large wildfire frequency, a globally widespread disturbance that affects both human and natural systems. Understanding how climate change, population growth, and development patterns will affect the area burned by and emissions from wildfires and how populations will in turn be exposed to emissions is critical for climate change adaptation and mitigation planning. We quantified the effects of a range of population growth and development patterns in California on emission projections from large wildfires under six future climate scenarios. Here we show that end-of-century wildfire emissions are projected to increase by 19-101% (median increase 56%) above the baseline period (1961-1990) in California for a medium-high temperature scenario, with the largest emissions increases concentrated in northern California. In contrast to other measures of wildfire impacts previously studied (e.g., structural loss), projected population growth and development patterns are unlikely to substantially influence the amount of projected statewide wildfire emissions. However, increases in wildfire emissions due to climate change may have detrimental impacts on air quality and, combined with a growing population, may result in increased population exposure to unhealthy air pollutants. © 2014 American Chemical Society.

Citation: Hurteau, M. D., A. L. Westerling, C. Wiedinmyer, and B. P. Bryant. 2014. Projected effects of climate and development on California wildfire emissions through 2100. Environmental Science & Technology, v. 48, no. 4, p. 2298-2304. 10.1021/es4050133.

Cataloging Information

Regions:
Keywords:
  • air quality
  • climate change
  • fire frequency
  • fire management
  • fire size
  • forest management
  • population density
  • wildfires
Tall Timbers Record Number: 29624Location Status: Not in fileCall Number: AvailableAbstract Status: Fair use, Okay, Reproduced by permission
Record Last Modified:
Record Maintained By: FRAMES Staff (https://www.frames.gov/contact)
FRAMES Record Number: 52494

This bibliographic record was either created or modified by Tall Timbers and is provided without charge to promote research and education in Fire Ecology. The E.V. Komarek Fire Ecology Database is the intellectual property of Tall Timbers.