Document


Title

A sensitivity analysis of the national fire management analysis system
Document Type: Journal Article
Author(s): Ervin G. Schuster; Michael A. Krebs
Publication Year: 2004

Cataloging Information

Keyword(s):
  • computer program
  • environmental management
  • fire frequency
  • fire intensity
  • fire management
  • forest management
  • forest resources
  • FORSKA2
  • national forests
  • natural resource management
  • natural resources
  • sensitivity
  • statistical analysis
  • strategic planning
  • US Forest Service
  • wildfires
Record Maintained By:
Record Last Modified: June 1, 2018
FRAMES Record Number: 5128
Tall Timbers Record Number: 17286
TTRS Location Status: In-file
TTRS Call Number: Fire File
TTRS Abstract Status: Okay, Fair use, Reproduced by permission

This bibliographic record was either created or modified by the Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy and is provided without charge to promote research and education in Fire Ecology. The E.V. Komarek Fire Ecology Database is the intellectual property of the Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy.

Description

A sensitivity analysis was conducted of the National Fire Management Analysis System (NFMAS) to better understand the relationship between data input and model outcomes, as reflected by changes in C+NVC and MEL program options. Five input variables were selected for sensitization: Unit Mission Costs, Average Acre Costs, Net Value Change, Production Rates, and Escaped Fire Limits. A stratified random sample of 32 national forests was selected, according to the distribution of national forests within Forest Service regions and fire frequency classes, on the basis of historical fire data. NFMAS database tables were obtained and manipulated, with each variable increased and decreased at six levels (+/-25, +/-50, and +/-100%). Results indicated that Production Rates was always the most influential variable, Unit Mission Costs was always least influential, and the influence of the other variables depends on the choice of model outcome. In general, greater sensitivity changes resulted in greater changes in model outcome, but no consistent pattern of influence could be found regarding program option.

Online Link(s):
Citation:
Schuster, Ervin G.; Krebs, Michael A. 2004. A sensitivity analysis of the national fire management analysis system. Western Journal of Applied Forestry 19(1):5-12.