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In this study we use historical relationships between weather, the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System components and ecozone area burned in Canada on a monthly basis in tandem with output from GCMs from the Canadian Climate Centre and the United Kingdom Hadley Centre to project future area burned. Our results suggest significant increases in area burned but there are large regional variations in fire activity with the Canadian GCM some ecozones show little change in area burned in the future. On average, area burned in Canada is expected to increase by 75-118%. In our initial assessments, we assume that the future vegetation mosaic will have similar fuel characteristics to the present situation. Refined estimates will be developed to include changes to fuel types in a changing climate with particular emphasis on the feedbacks caused by a changing fire regime. Other considerations such as changes in ignitions, fire season length, human activity (fire management and land use activities) that influence area burned will also be discussed.
Cataloging Information
- area burned
- biogeochemical cycles
- Canada
- climate change
- fire danger rating
- fire management
- fire regimes
- fire size
- forest fires
- forest management
- fuel types
- GCM
- ignition
- land use
- mosaic
- Portugal
- United Kingdom
- vegetation surveys
- wildfires
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