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Type: Book Chapter
Author(s): Michael D. Flannigan; K. A. Logan; Brian J. Stocks; B. Michael Wotton; Brian D. Amiro; J. Bernie Todd
Editor(s): Domingos Xavier Viegas
Publication Date: 2002

In this study we use historical relationships between weather, the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System components and ecozone area burned in Canada on a monthly basis in tandem with output from GCMs from the Canadian Climate Centre and the United Kingdom Hadley Centre to project future area burned. Our results suggest significant increases in area burned but there are large regional variations in fire activity with the Canadian GCM some ecozones show little change in area burned in the future. On average, area burned in Canada is expected to increase by 75-118%. In our initial assessments, we assume that the future vegetation mosaic will have similar fuel characteristics to the present situation. Refined estimates will be developed to include changes to fuel types in a changing climate with particular emphasis on the feedbacks caused by a changing fire regime. Other considerations such as changes in ignitions, fire season length, human activity (fire management and land use activities) that influence area burned will also be discussed.

Citation: Flannigan, M. D., K. A. Logan, B. J. Stocks, B. M. Wotton, B. D. Amiro, and J. B. Todd. 2002. Projections of future fire activity and area burned in Canada, in DX Viegas ed., Forest fire research & wildland fire safety: proceedings of the IV International Conference on Forest Fire Research / 2002 Wildland Fire Safety Summit, Luso, Coimbra, Portugal 18-23 November 2002. Rotterdam, Netherlands, Millpress, p. 14-15.

Cataloging Information

Topics:
Climate    Fire Ecology    Fuels    Safety    Weather
Regions:
Alaska    California    Eastern    Great Basin    Hawaii    Northern Rockies    Northwest    Rocky Mountain    Southern    Southwest    International    National
Keywords:
  • area burned
  • biogeochemical cycles
  • Canada
  • climate change
  • fire danger rating
  • fire management
  • fire regimes
  • fire size
  • forest fires
  • forest management
  • fuel types
  • GCM
  • ignition
  • land use
  • mosaic
  • Portugal
  • United Kingdom
  • vegetation surveys
  • wildfires
Tall Timbers Record Number: 21527Location Status: Not in fileCall Number: Fire FileAbstract Status: Fair use, Okay, Reproduced by permission
Record Last Modified:
Record Maintained By: FRAMES Staff (https://www.frames.gov/contact)
FRAMES Record Number: 45906

This bibliographic record was either created or modified by Tall Timbers and is provided without charge to promote research and education in Fire Ecology. The E.V. Komarek Fire Ecology Database is the intellectual property of Tall Timbers.