Four species of boreal forest conifers (Picea glauca, P. mariana, Larix laricina and Pinus banksiana) share a similar southern limit of natural distribution in the three Prairie Provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba) of western Canada. The southern boundaries of boreal forest and aspen (Populus tremuloides) parkland were compared with geographic patterns of several climate variables to provide a preliminary assessment of how global climate change could affect forest distribution in the future. Forest zonation corresponded most closely with climatic moisture regimes (annual precipitation minus potential evaporation). In contrast, thermal characteristics of climate (mean July and annual temperature, growing degree-days) showed an inconsistent relationship with forest zonation. It is postulated that moisture limitations prevent conifer regeneration south of the present limit of natural distribution. Alternatively, the more arid climates south of the boreal forest may have promoted higher fire frequencies historically, thus preventing conifers from achieving sufficient longevity to regenerate. The driest areas of boreal forest in the region occur at low altitudes in west-central Manitoba, throughout Saskatchewan and Alberta, and the SW Mackenzie District, Northwest Territories; these areas may be most vulnerable to increased climatic dryness. It is concluded that climatically induced losses of forest cover from these low-altitude areas could eventually lead to the fragmentation of the boreal forest in western Canada.