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Type: Journal Article
Author(s): Sergi Costafreda-Aumedes; Carles Comas; Cristina Vega-GarcĂ­a
Publication Date: 2017

The increasing global concern about wildfires, mostly caused by people, has triggered the development of human-caused fire occurrence models in many countries. The premise is that better knowledge of the underlying factors is critical for many fire management purposes, such as operational decision-making in suppression and strategic prevention planning, or guidance on forest and land-use policies. However, the explanatory and predictive capacity of fire occurrence models is not yet widely applied to the management of forests, fires or emergencies. In this article, we analyse the developments in the field of human-caused fire occurrence modelling with the aim of identifying the most appropriate variables and methods for applications in forest and fire management and civil protection. We stratify our worldwide analysis by temporal dimension (short-term and long-term) and by model output (numeric or binary), and discuss management applications. An attempt to perform a meta-analysis based on published models proved limited because of non-equivalence of the metrics and units of the estimators and outcomes across studies, the diversity of models and the lack of information in published works.

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Citation: Costafreda-Aumedes, Sergi; Comas, Carles; Vega-Garcia, Cristina. 2017. Human-caused fire occurrence modelling in perspective: a review. International Journal of Wildland Fire 26(12):983-998.

Cataloging Information

Alaska    California    Eastern    Great Basin    Hawaii    Northern Rockies    Northwest    Rocky Mountain    Southern    Southwest    International    National
  • human caused fires
  • meta-analysis
  • predictive models
  • space-time patterns
  • wildfires
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Record Maintained By: FRAMES Staff (
FRAMES Record Number: 25407