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Type: Journal Article
Author(s): Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young; Francis W. Zwiers; Nathan P. Gillett; Alex J. Cannon
Publication Date: 2017

Canada is expected to see an increase in fire risk under future climate projections. Large fires, such as that near Fort McMurray, Alberta in 2016, can be devastating to the communities affected. Understanding the role of human emissions in the occurrence of such extreme fire events can lend insight into how these events might change in the future. An event attribution framework is used to quantify the influence of anthropogenic forcings on extreme fire risk in the current climate of a western Canada region. Fourteen metrics from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System are used to define the extreme fire seasons. For the majority of these metrics and during the current decade, the combined effect of anthropogenic and natural forcing is estimated to have made extreme fire risk events in the region 1.5 to 6 times as likely compared to a climate that would have been with natural forcings alone.

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Citation: Kirchmeier-Young, Megan C.; Zwiers, Francis W.; Gillett, Nathan P.; Cannon, Alex J. 2017. Attributing extreme fire risk in western Canada to human emissions. Climatic Change 144(2):365-379.

Cataloging Information

Regions:
Keywords:
  • Alberta
  • Canada
  • CFFDRS - Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System
  • event attribution
  • extremes
Record Last Modified:
Record Maintained By: FRAMES Staff (https://www.frames.gov/contact)
FRAMES Record Number: 24782