This project is in response to the Joint Fire Sciences FA-FON0016-0004 Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE) Task 5 - Modeling leads. The first phase of FASMEE will develop a study plan for an observational campaign focused on collecting the data needed to evaluate and improve fire and smoke models. Study design will be guided by modeling for defining data requirements and evaluating the spatial sampling plan. Developing the spatial sampling plan requires accounting for uncertainty. The purpose of this project is to support the FASMEE Phase Is objective by evaluating the potential impacts of uncertainty in prescription parameters on sampling design, particularly for downwind smoke measurements. Two smoke screening models, Daysmoke (a local smoke plume dispersion and transport model developed specially for prescribed burning with relatively simple physics) and PB-Piedmont (a meteorological and smoke model for simulating near-ground smoke transport at night over complex terrain) will be used to conduct an ensemble of high-resolution simulations with varying both input meteorology and fire related inputs to generate probability distributions of smoke impacts both at the surface and along vertical cross sections of the plumes downwind of the fire. The Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) will be utilized to identify the input parameters that most significantly affect the temporal/spatial evolution of the plume. The modeling and experiment results will be used to assess how variability of burning prescription parameters as well as strength of the inversion capping the top of the mixed layer may impact smoke dispersion and thus the experimental sampling design.