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Forest fires in Canada currently burn 2-3 M ha annually (~0.5% of forest land), causing an estimated $2 B in timber losses. Total annual fire suppression expenditures in Canada are about $500 M. Fire statistics for the last 40 years show an increasing trend in the average annual area burned and this is expected to continue into the future with a changing climate. Global and regional climate models also suggest that there will be a general increase in fire intensity, fire severity and fire season length. This will increase suppression costs and create a greater risk to life and property as the population continues to expand into the ex-urban environment. In order to meet environmental, social and economic goals in the future, fire management must adapt to these changing conditions. This study examines different fire management scenarios to adapt to future fire regimes. The future fire environment was estimated using data from two global climate models (Canadian CGCM1 and Hadley HadCM3) and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Fire management scenarios were based on different levels of fire suppression capability, coupled with economic, social and environmental values. An indication of likely future impacts at the national level are presented.
Cataloging Information
- annual area burned
- Canada
- climate change
- fire management
- fire suppression costs