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Type: Journal Article
Author(s): Karen L. Abt; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Krista M. Gebert
Publication Date: 2009

The US Forest Service and other land-management agencies seek better tools for anticipating future expenditures for wildfire suppression. We developed regression models for forecasting US Forest Service suppression spending at 1-, 2-, and 3-year lead times. We compared these models to another readily available forecast model, the 10-year moving average model, and found that the regression models do a better job of forecasting the expenditures for all three time horizons. When evaluated against the historical data, our models were particularly better at forecasting the more recent years (2000-2007) than the less sophisticated models. The regression models also allowed us to generate, using simulation methods, forecast statistics such as the means, medians, and confidence intervals of costs. These additional statistics provide policymakers, wildfire managers, and planners more information than a single forecast value.

Online Links
Citation: Abt, Karen L.; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Gebert, Krista M. 2009. Wildfire suppression cost forecasts for the US Forest Service. Journal of Forestry 107(4):173-178.

Cataloging Information

Topics:
Regions:
Alaska    California    Eastern    Great Basin    Hawaii    Northern Rockies    Northwest    Rocky Mountain    Southern    Southwest    National
Keywords:
  • budget
  • expenditures
  • suppression costs
  • wildland fire management
Record Last Modified:
Record Maintained By: FRAMES Staff (https://www.frames.gov/contact)
FRAMES Record Number: 18563