A. David McGuire, University of Alaska - Fairbanks, presents the study Identifying Indicators of State Change and Forecasting Future Vulnerability in Alaskan Boreal Forest at the 2011 Alaska Fire Science Workshop in Fairbanks, Alaska on October 7, 2011. The objectives of this study is to determine mechanistic links among fire, soils, permafrost, and vegetation succession in order to develop and test field-based ecosystem indicators that can be used to directly predict ecosystem vulnerability to state change, and to develop models that can forecast landscape change in response to projected changes in climate, fire regime, and fire management.