Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios
The authors assessed potential future trajectories of forest stand structure in treated and untreated sites within the Rodeo-Chediski fire in response to multiple scenarios of climate change using the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS).
Under the most extreme climate scenarios, an increase in 2.0 – 5.4 °C, ponderosa pine was completely or nearly eliminated from the study sites by 2111. Conversely, the no climate change or limited climate change scenarios resulted in excessively dense stands of ponderosa pine in the absence of management. Adding a prescribed fire management regime ranging from 5-20 years to the Climate-FVS simulations resulted in forest conditions remaining with the historical range through the 100 year study time period under all climate scenarios but the A2 emissions scenario.
Climate and Fire Linkages
Under the most extreme climate scenarios, an increase in 2.0 – 5.4 °C, ponderosa pine was completely or nearly eliminated from the study sites by 2111. Conversely, the no climate change or limited climate change scenarios resulted in excessively dense stands of ponderosa pine in the absence of management. Adding a prescribed fire management regime ranging from 5-20 years to the Climate-FVS simulations resulted in forest conditions remaining with the historical range through the 100 year study time period under all climate scenarios but the A2 emissions scenario.
Fire and Ecosystem Effects Linkages
Adding a prescribed fire management regime ranging from 5-20 years to the Climate-FVS simulations resulted in forest conditions remaining with the historical range through the 100 year study time period under all climate scenarios but the A2 emissions scenario.