Impacts of climate change from 2000 to 2050 on wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations in the western United States
The authors projected changes in wildfire area burned based on future climate models to understand the potential impacts of increased fire on carbonaceous aerosol air quality.
The authors predicted an increase in wildfire area burned across most of the western U.S. based on a 1–3°C increase in temperature, with larger increases in some areas, Pacific Northwest and Rocky Mountains Forest ecoregions, than others, almost no increase predicted for Nevada Nevada Mountains/Semidesert and Eastern Rocky Mountains/Great Plains ecoregions. Along with predicted increases in area burned, the authors modeled a 40% increase in summertime organic carbon (OC) concentrations and an 18% increase in elemental carbon (EC) concentrations by 2050. Areas with the highest predicted future increases in carbonaceous aerosol concentrations are concomitant with the areas of greatest increases in wildfire.
Climate and Fire Linkages
The authors predicted an increase in wildfire area burned across most of the western U.S. based on a 1–3°C increase in temperature, with larger increases in some areas, Pacific Northwest and Rocky Mountains Forest ecoregions, than others, almost no increase predicted for Nevada Nevada Mountains/Semidesert and Eastern Rocky Mountains/Great Plains ecoregions. Along with predicted increases in area burned, the authors modeled a 40% increase in summertime organic carbon (OC) concentrations and an 18% increase in elemental carbon (EC) concentrations by 2050. Areas with the highest predicted future increases in carbonaceous aerosol concentrations are concomitant with the areas of greatest increases in wildfire.