Future fire probability modeling with climate change data and physical chemistry
The authors produced a model to predict a spatially explicit map of future fire probability and fire frequency based on climate projection models across the U.S.
The authors found that future fire probabilities increased with increasing temperature; however predictions for each of the climate models diverged for the southwestern U.S. The CGCM data resulted in decreased future fire probability (0 to ?30%) while the GFDL data resulted in increased fire probability (near 0 to greater than 40%). The authors suggest this discrepancy is due to the limitations in predicting precipitation and moisture conditions and their effect on fuel production.