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Full Citation: Fulé, Peter Z.; Crouse, Joseph E. ; Cocke, Allison E.; Moore, Margaret M.; Covington, W. Wallace. 2004. Changes in canopy fuels and potential fire behavior 1880-2040: Grand Canyon, Arizona. Ecological Modelling 175(3):231-248.
External Identifier(s): 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2003.10.023 Digital Object Identifier
Location: Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona, U.S.
Ecosystem types: Ponderosa pine; mixed-conifer, spruce-fir/aspen
Southwest FireCLIME Keywords: None
FRAMES Keywords: Abies lasiocarpa, CBD - canopy bulk density, crown fire, Douglas-fir, Pinus ponderosa, ponderosa pine, Pseudotsuga menziesii, Abies concolor, Engelmann spruce, Picea engelmannii, Populus tremuloides, quaking aspen, subalpine fir, white fir, canopy fuels, Crowning Index, Kaibab Plateau, Grand Canyon, blue spruce, Picea pungens, Arizona, biomass, coniferous forests, disturbance, elevation, fire management, fuel management, fuel models, fuel moisture, fuel types, national parks, native plant species, overstory, population density, Quercus gambelii, regeneration, Robinia, temperature

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Changes in canopy fuels and potential fire behavior 1880-2040: Grand Canyon, Arizona

Peter Z. Fulé, Joseph E. Crouse, Allison E. Cocke, Margaret M. Moore, W. Wallace Covington
Summary - what did the authors do and why?

The authors reconstructed fuel and fire behavior variables across an elevation gradient in Grand Canyon forests to estimate the change in canopy fuels since 1880 and to project future canopy fuels and associated potential fire behavior into the near future (2040).
Publication findings:

Historically, high wind speeds were required to initiate crown fire behavior across all forest types within the project area. By the year 2000, common windspeeds of 45 km/h were projected to be sufficient to initiate crown fire at most sites due to changes in canopy bulk density. The increase in canopy fuels continuity has already and is expected to lead to broad-scale crown fire instead of a highly mixed pattern of burn severity that was common historically.

Fire and Ecosystem Effects Linkages

How do fire behavior, type, and intensity relate to fuels?

Historically, high wind speeds were required to initiate crown fire behavior across all forest types within the project area. By the year 2000, common windspeeds of 45 km/h were projected to be sufficient to initiate crown fire at most sites due to changes in canopy bulk density. The increase in canopy fuels continuity has already and is expected to lead to broad-scale crown fire instead of a highly mixed pattern of burn severity that was common historically.