Full Citation: Liu, Yongqiang; Goodrick, Scott L.; Stanturf, John A. 2013. Future U.S. wildfire potential trends projected using a dynamically downscaled climate change scenario. Forest Ecology and Management 294:120-135.
External Identifier(s): 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.06.049 Digital Object Identifier
Location: Continental U.S.
Ecosystem types: None specified
Southwest FireCLIME Keywords: None
FRAMES Keywords: climate change, fire potential, KBDI - Keetch-Byram Drought Index, mFFWI - modified Fosberg Fire Weather Index, fire management, fire danger rating, wildfires, drought, humidity, wind

Future U.S. wildfire potential trends projected using a dynamically downscaled climate change scenario

Yongqiang Liu, Scott L. Goodrick, John A. Stanturf


Summary - what did the authors do and why?

The authors examined potential future (2041-2070) trends and spatial patterns of wildfire across the continental U.S. using downscaled regional climate change scenarios.


Publication findings:

The authors found that the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is expected to increase, driven primarily by increasing temperature across the Southwest, Rocky Mountains, northern Great Plains, Southeast, and Pacific coast, thereby increasing future fire potential across most of the continental U.S. The fire season is also projected to increase in length, potentially by several months in some regions.

Climate and Fire Linkages

The authors found that the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is expected to increase, driven primarily by increasing temperature across the Southwest, Rocky Mountains, northern Great Plains, Southeast, and Pacific coast, thereby increasing future fire potential across most of the continental U.S.

The fire season is projected to increase in length, potentially by several months in some regions.