Driving forces of global wildfires over the past millennium and the forthcoming century
The authors developed a model that estimates fire activity based on vegetation and climate/weather conditions as well as availability of ignition sources and fire suppression rates globally. The projected their model to determine how climate may affect future global fire trends.
The authors reconstruction of past fire activity suggests that until the late 18th century fire was driven mostly by climate. Specifically, they found that variation in global precipitation had the strongest influence on global fire activity. Post Industrial Revolution, anthropogenic activities had a stronger influence on global fire trends. Finally, predictions in future warming due to climate change suggest an imminent shift to temperature-driven global fire activity over the next century.