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Full Citation: Westerling, Anthony L.; Turner, Monica G.; Smithwick, Erica A.H.; Romme, William H.; Ryan, Michael G. 2011. Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st Century. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108(32):13165-13170.
External Identifier(s): 10.1073/pnas.1110199108 Digital Object Identifier
Location: Greater Yellowstone ecosystem, Wyoming, U.S.
Ecosystem types: Mixed-conifer forests
Southwest FireCLIME Keywords: None
FRAMES Keywords: fire regimes, Yellowstone National Park, climate change, high severity fire regime, climate change effects, catastrophic fires, fire exclusion, fire frequency, fire intensity, fire size, fire suppression, post-fire recovery, season of fire, wildfires, climatology, elevation, global warming, moisture, precipitation, regeneration, statistical analysis, succession, temperature, ecosystem dynamics, fire management, forest management, fuel management, coniferous forests

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Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st Century

Anthony Leroy Westerling, Monica G. Turner, Erica A. H. Smithwick, William H. Romme, Michael G. Ryan
Summary - what did the authors do and why?

The authors projected how large fire (> 200 ha) occurrence, size, and spatial location may be affected by climate change in the forests of the Greater Yellowstone area.
Publication findings:

The authors predicted an increase in fire occurrence, frequency, and size by midcentury in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem due to projected increases in average spring and summer temperatures. They suggest that a shift toward a novel fire-climate-vegetation relationship as the increase in fire frequency becomes incompatible with the persistence of the current vegetation in the region.

Climate and Fire Linkages

How do temperature, relative humidity and vapor pressure deficit relate to annual area burned and fire size?

The authors predicted an increase in fire occurrence, frequency, and size by midcentury in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem due to projected increases in average spring and summer temperatures.

How do temperature, relative humidity, and vapor pressure deficit relate to fire frequency, rotation, and return interval?

The authors predicted an increase in fire occurrence, frequency, and size by midcentury in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem due to projected increases in average spring and summer temperatures.

Fire and Ecosystem Effects Linkages

How do annual area burned and fire size relate to species composition, non-natives, and structure?

The authors suggest that a shift toward a novel fire-climate-vegetation relationship as the increase in fire frequency becomes incompatible with the persistence of the current vegetation in the region.

How do fire frequency, rotation, and return interval relate to species composition, non-natives, and structure?

The authors suggest that a shift toward a novel fire-climate-vegetation relationship as the increase in fire frequency becomes incompatible with the persistence of the current vegetation in the region.