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Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity

Max A. Moritz, Marc-André Parisien, Enric Batllori, Meg A. Krawchuk, Jeff Van Dorn, David J. Ganz, Katharine Hayhoe
Summary - what did the authors do and why?

The authors derived future fire probability at a 0.5° resolution from a range of global climate models. Climate variables consisted of precipitation, the precipitation of the driest month, temperature seasonality, the mean temperature of the wettest month, and the mean temperature of the warmest month.

Publication findings:

The authors did not find agreement in directional trends in fire activity for over 50% of terrestrial lands globally by 2039. Longer projections to the end of the century suggest that fire probabilities will increase in the mid- to high-latitudes and decrease in the tropics. They suggest that although future temperature is expected to rise across the globe, future fire activity seems to be driven by moisture availability in many areas.

Climate and Fire Linkages

How does drought relate to spatial and landscape patterns of fire?

Longer projections to the end of the century suggest that fire probabilities will increase in the mid- to high-latitudes and decrease in the tropics. They suggest that although future temperature is expected to rise across the globe, future fire activity seems to be driven by moisture availability in many areas.

How do temperature, relative humidity, and vapor pressure deficit relate to spatial and landscape patterns of fire?

Longer projections to the end of the century suggest that fire probabilities will increase in the mid- to high-latitudes and decrease in the tropics. They suggest that although future temperature is expected to rise across the globe, future fire activity seems to be driven by moisture availability in many areas.