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Full Citation: Holden, Zachary A.; Morgan, Penelope; Evans, Jeffrey S. 2009. A predictive model of burn severity based on 20-year satellite-inferred burn severity data in a large southwestern US wilderness area. Forest Ecology and Management 258(11):2399-2406.
External Identifier(s): 10.1016/j.foreco.2009.08.017 Digital Object Identifier
Location: Gila National Forest, New Mexico, U.S.
Ecosystem types: Forested ecosystems; Piñon-Oak; Ponderosa pine; Douglas-fir; Mixed-conifer; Spruce-Fir; Riparian
Southwest FireCLIME Keywords: None
FRAMES Keywords: burn severity, ecological restoration, Gila National Forest, Landsat, remote sensing, wilderness areas, RdNBR - relative differenced Normalized Burn Ratio, Adenostoma fasciculatum, catastrophic fires, ecosystem dynamics, fine fuels, fire frequency, fire intensity, fire management, fire regimes, fire size, fuel management, fuel moisture, herbaceous vegetation, histories, Mediterranean habitats, moisture, shrublands, wind, wildfires

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A predictive model of burn severity based on 20-year satellite-inferred burn severity data in a large southwestern US wilderness area

Zachary A. Holden, Penelope Morgan, Jeffrey S. Evans
Summary - what did the authors do and why?

The authors used the Random Forest algorithm in R to analyze the comparative strength of a suite of topographic variables and Potential Vegetation Type (PVT) to predict high severity fire occurrence from 1984 to 2004 in the Gila Wilderness.


Publication findings:

This article found strong relationships between topographic variables and high severity fire occurrence. Severe fire was more likely to occur on north-facing slopes at high elevations due to the interaction of biomass production and fuel accumulation which in turn influences burn severity. Without the influence of humans on this landscape, climate, topography, and vegetation interact strongly with each other to control burn severity in a region dominated by semi-arid forest, where moisture limits vegetation production.

Fire and Ecosystem Effects Linkages

How does fire severity relate to fuels?

This article found strong relationships between topographic variables and high severity fire occurrence. Severe fire was more likely to occur on north-facing slopes at high elevations due to the interaction of biomass production and fuel accumulation which in turn influences burn severity. Without the influence of humans on this landscape, climate, topography, and vegetation interact strongly with each other to control burn severity in a region dominated by semi-arid forest, where moisture limits vegetation production.