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Citation: O'Connor, Christopher D.; Falk, Donald A.; Lynch, Ann M.; Swetnam, Thomas W. 2014. Fire severity, size, and climate associations diverge from historical precedent along an ecological gradient in the Pinaleño Mountains, Arizona, USA. Forest Ecology and Management 329:264-278.


The authors reconstructed the fire regime before and after fire exclusion around approximately 1880 to determine if recent large, high-severity fire is within the natural range of variability for Sky Island ecosystems in the Pinaleño Mountains of Arizona, U.S.

Citation: Parks, Sean A.; Parisien, Marc-André; Miller, Carol L.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z. 2014. Fire activity and severity in the western US vary along proxy gradients representing fuel amount and fuel moisture. PLoS ONE 9(6):e99699.


The authors characterize fire activity and/or area burned and fire severity variability along a gradient of fuel amount and fuel moisture within wilderness areas using actual evapotranspiration (AET) and water deficit (WD), respectively, as regional proxies.

Citation: Tarancón, Alicia Azpeleta; Fulé, Peter Z.; Shive, Kristen L.; Sieg, Carolyn Hull; Sánchez Meador, Andrew; Strom, Barbara A. 2014. Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios. Ecological Applications 24(7):1626-1637.


The authors assessed potential future trajectories of forest stand structure in treated and untreated sites within the Rodeo-Chediski fire in response to multiple scenarios of climate change using the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS).

Citation: Stavros, E. Natasha; Abatzoglou, John T.; McKenzie, Donald; Larkin, Narasimhan K. 2014. Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous western United States. Climatic Change 126(3-4):455-468.


The authors examined the future likelihood of occurrence and potential changes in the seasonal window for very large wildfires (VLF, >50,000 ac) based on an ensemble of 14 downscaled global climate projections and two representative concentration pathways. They looked at the effects of specific climate predictors on very large wildfire potential through the 21st century.

Citation: Williams, A. Park; Seager, Richard; Berkelhammer, Max; Macalady, Alison K.; Crimmins, Michael A.; Swetnam, Thomas W.; Trugman, Anna T.; Buenning, Nikolaus; Hryniw, Natalia; McDowell, Nate G.; Noone, David; Mora, Claudia I.; Rahn, Thom. 2014. Causes and implications of extreme atmospheric moisture demand during the record-breaking 2011 wildfire season in the southwestern United States. Applied Meteorology and Climatology 53(12):2671-2684.


The authors examined the large-scale climate processes driving drought and high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) during the extreme fire season of 2011. They further projected future climate conditions to determine if projected trends in an ensemble of climate variables may resemble conditions from the 2011 fire season in future years.

Citation: Barbero, Renaud; Abatzoglou, John T.; Steel, E. Ashley; Larkin, Narasimhan K. 2014. Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing. Environmental Research Letters 9(12).


The authors developed models of very large fire occurrence (> 5000ha) using solely atmospheric climate predictors and compared the modes to the observed spatial and temporal variability across ecoregions of the U.S. to identify the most important climate variables driving large fire occurrence and to understand how large fire occurrence may be change due to future climate changes.

Citation: Rother, Monica T.; Grissino-Mayer, Henri D. 2014. Climatic influences on fire regimes in ponderosa pine forests of the Zuni Mountains, NM, USA. Forest Ecology and Management 322:69-77.


The authors characterized the fire history of ponderosa pine forests in the Zuni Mountains and examined historic relationships between climate and fire using Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) and Bivariate Event Analysis (BEA).

Citation: van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Nesmith, Jonathan C.B.; Keifer, MaryBeth J.; Knapp, Eric E.; Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E. 2013. Climatic stress increases forest fire severity across the western United States. Ecology Letters 16(9):1151-1156.


The authors examined the relationship between climate and fire severity across coniferous forests of the western U.S.

Citation: Korb, Julie E.; Fulé, Peter Z.; Wu, Rosalind. 2013. Variability of warm/dry mixed conifer forests in southwestern Colorado, USA: Implications for ecological restoration. Forest Ecology and Management 304:182-191.


The authors compared the forest composition and structure along three transects at similar latitude and elevation in the San Juan National Forest to determine if climate synchronized fire occurrence across the large regional area historically.

Citation: Diaz, Henry F.; Swetnam, Thomas W. 2013: The wildfires of 1910: climatology of an extreme early twentieth-century event and comparison with more recent extremes. Bulletin of the American Meteorlogical Society 94(9):1361-1370.


The authors assessed the climate conditions preceding and during a period of intense fire activity across the western U.S. in the summer of 1910. They further evaluated other large regional fire years to determine if analogous climate conditions occurred during those periods of high fire activity.