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Citation: Loehman, Rachel; Flatley, Will; Holsinger, Lisa; Thode, Andrea. 2018. Can land management buffer impacts of climate changes and altered fire regimes on ecosystems of the Southwestern United States? Forests 9(4):192.


Using two mechanistic ecosystem-fire models, Fire BGCv2 in the Jemez Mountains and LANDIS-II in the Kaibab, the authors projected contemporary climate and two future emissions scenarios (“warm-dry” and “hot-arid”) to the year 2100 to predict changes to forests and fire regimes in a ponderosa pine and a mixed-conifer ecosystem. They also modeled four management strategies (suppression-only, current treatment intensity, and three and six times current treatment intensity) to see if management may be able to counteract the effects of climate change on forest composition and structure.

Citation: Parks, Sean A.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Panunto, Matthew H. 2018. What drives low-severity fire in the southwestern USA? Forests 9(4):165.


The authors evaluated both climate and biophysical factors that influence the occurrence of low severity fire in the Southwest. Low severity fire is an important component of many high frequency, fire-adapted ecosystems in the southwest, so understanding those conditions which promote low severity fire is highly relevant to land managers.

Citation: Abatzoglou, John T.; Williams, A. Park. 2016. Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across. western US forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 113(42):11770-11775.


The authors quantified the contribution of past anthropogenic climate change to increases in area burned based on observed increases in fuel aridity metrics from 1979 to 2015, including temperature and vapor pressure deficit.

Citation: Iniguez, Jose M.; Swetnam, Thomas W.; Baisan, Christopher H. 2016. Fire history and moisture influences on historical forest age structure in the sky islands of southern Arizona, USA. Journal of Biogeography 43(1):85-95.


The authors examined synchrony of stand age and structure between geographically separated sites, or sky islands, to determine the influence of moisture and/or drought variability versus fire frequency on historic stand development.

Citation: Andrus, Robert A.; Veblen, Thomas T.; Harvey, Brian J.; Hart, Sarah J. 2016. Fire severity unaffected by spruce beetle outbreak in spruce-fir forests in southwestern Colorado. Ecological Applications 26(3):700-711.


The authors examined the effects of spruce beetle infestation on fire severity during the drought years of 2012 to 2013.

Citation: Margolis, Ellis Q.; Malevich, Steven B. 2016. Historical dominance of low-severity fire in dry and wet mixed-conifer forest habitats of the endangered terrestrial Jemez mountains salamander (Plethodon neomexicanus). Forest Ecology and Management 375:12-26.


The authors reconstructed the historical stand structure and fire regimes along a gradient of ponderosa pine to wet mixed-conifer and aspen stands within the habitat of the endangered Jemez Mountains salamander. They further related the variability of climate to the historic fire regime.

Citation: Coppoletta, Michelle; Merriam, Kyle E.; Collins, Brandon M. 2016. Post-fire vegetation and fuel development influences fire severity patterns in reburns. Ecological Applications 26(3):686-699.


The authors sampled field plots that reburned to examine how biophysical characteristics, topography, fire weather, time-since-fire, and initial fire severity affected subsequent reburn severity

Citation: Parks, Sean A.; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Miller, Carol L.; Nelson, Cara R. 2015. Wildland fire as a self-regulating mechanism: the role of previous burns and weather in limiting fire progression. Ecological Applications 25(6):1478-1492.


The authors’ objective was to research the ability of wildfire to limit the spread of a subsequent fire based on the time between the two, and also to see how weather at the time of the fire alters this effect.

Citation: Tang, Ying; Zhong, Shiyuan; Luo, Lifeng; Bian, Xindi; Heilman, Warren E.; Winkler, Julie A. 2015. The potential impact of regional climate change on fire weather in the United States. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 105(1):1-21.


The authors assessed potential changes in fire weather conditions across the contiguous U.S. based on the Haines Index to predict how fire activity and behavior may change due to climate change.

Citation: Barbero, Renaud; Abatzoglou, John T.; Larkin, Narasimhan K.; Kolden, Crystal A.; Stocks, Brian J. 2015. Climate change presents increased potential for very large fires in the contiguous United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire 24(7):892-899.


Very large fire (>5,000ha) potential was projected from 2041 – 2070 using an ensemble of 17 global climate models. The authors used known empirical relationships between climate and very large fire occurrence in order to identify future potential regional and seasonal fire distributions under future climate change.