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The authors evaluated both climate and biophysical factors that influence the occurrence of low severity fire in the Southwest. Low severity fire is an important component of many high frequency, fire-adapted ecosystems in the southwest, so understanding those conditions which promote low severity fire is highly relevant to land managers.
Using two mechanistic ecosystem-fire models, Fire BGCv2 in the Jemez Mountains and LANDIS-II in the Kaibab, the authors projected contemporary climate and two future emissions scenarios (“warm-dry” and “hot-arid”) to the year 2100 to predict changes to forests and fire regimes in a ponderosa pine and a mixed-conifer ecosystem. They also modeled four management strategies (suppression-only, current treatment intensity, and three and six times current treatment intensity) to see if management may be able to counteract the effects of climate change on forest composition and structure.
The authors quantified the contribution of past anthropogenic climate change to increases in area burned based on observed increases in fuel aridity metrics from 1979 to 2015, including temperature and vapor pressure deficit.
The authors examined synchrony of stand age and structure between geographically separated sites, or sky islands, to determine the influence of moisture and/or drought variability versus fire frequency on historic stand development.
The authors examined the effects of spruce beetle infestation on fire severity during the drought years of 2012 to 2013.
The authors reconstructed the historical stand structure and fire regimes along a gradient of ponderosa pine to wet mixed-conifer and aspen stands within the habitat of the endangered Jemez Mountains salamander. They further related the variability of climate to the historic fire regime.
The authors sampled field plots that reburned to examine how biophysical characteristics, topography, fire weather, time-since-fire, and initial fire severity affected subsequent reburn severity
The authors’ objective was to research the ability of wildfire to limit the spread of a subsequent fire based on the time between the two, and also to see how weather at the time of the fire alters this effect.
The authors assessed potential changes in fire weather conditions across the contiguous U.S. based on the Haines Index to predict how fire activity and behavior may change due to climate change.
Very large fire (>5,000ha) potential was projected from 2041 – 2070 using an ensemble of 17 global climate models. The authors used known empirical relationships between climate and very large fire occurrence in order to identify future potential regional and seasonal fire distributions under future climate change.