The authors assessed potential future trajectories of forest stand structure in treated and untreated sites within the Rodeo-Chediski fire in response to multiple scenarios of climate change using the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS).

The authors examined regional trends in large fire occurrence, total area burned, fire size, and day of year of ignition from 1984 to 2011. The authors also assessed trends in climate indicators including maximum temperature, precipitation, and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI).

The authors characterize fire activity and/or area burned and fire severity variability along a gradient of fuel amount and fuel moisture within wilderness areas using actual evapotranspiration (AET) and water deficit (WD), respectively, as regional proxies.

The authors examined the future likelihood of occurrence and potential changes in the seasonal window for very large wildfires (VLF, >50,000 ac) based on an ensemble of 14 downscaled global climate projections and two representative concentration pathways. They looked at the effects of specific climate predictors on very large wildfire potential through the 21st century.

The authors examined the large-scale climate processes driving drought and high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) during the extreme fire season of 2011. They further projected future climate conditions to determine if projected trends in an ensemble of climate variables may resemble conditions from the 2011 fire season in future years.

The authors estimated the projected increase in the mean annual lighting flash rate based on global climate models of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and precipitation from 2079-2088.

Using the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), the authors examined the effects of projected climate scenarios on future forest trajectories of ponderosa pine ecosystems in the Rodeo-Chediski Fire, and they further examined the potential effects of management strategies, including prescribed fire, to mitigate climate effects and increase resilience.

The authors compared the forest composition and structure along three transects at similar latitude and elevation in the San Juan National Forest to determine if climate synchronized fire occurrence across the large regional area historically.

The authors tested the intermediate fire-productivity hypothesis across the world’s ecoregions that posit that fire is most common at the intermediate levels of aridity and productivity while either very arid or very productive ecosystems tend to decrease in flammability.

The authors examined potential future (2041-2070) trends and spatial patterns of wildfire across the continental U.S. using downscaled regional climate change scenarios.