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Experimental Seasonal Fire Forecasts for Alaska: 2011 Overview and Update
Presenter(s): Paul A. Duffy (Neptune and Company, Inc.,
Distribution Contact(s): Alison D. York (Alaska Fire Science Consortium,
Publisher: Alaska Fire Science Consortium
Recording Date:
March  29,  2011
Atmospheric circulation patterns influence seasonal temperature and precipitation across large regions of Alaska. This experimental fire prediction tool uses this information to produce a forecast of area burned in Interior Alaska (i.e. South of the Brooks Range and North of the Alaska Range). By using the historical area burned data, historical teleconnection indices, and monthly temperature and precipitation indices for Interior Alaska, statistical models were constructed that forecast the area burned for the upcoming season based on the early season atmospheric circulation patterns. Paul A. Duffy of Neptune and Company, Inc. describes fire-climate linkages, reviews forecasting approaches and outputs, and discusses the importance of feedback from fire managers and planners. This webinar was hosted by the Alaska Fire Science Consortium (
Online Link(s): Link to this video (wmv; 30.8 MB)
 Link to this video (mp4; 47.0 MB)
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Related Record(s) on FRAMES:
Tool: Experimental Forecast of Area Burned for Interior Alaska
Cataloging Information:
AFSC - Alaska Fire Science Consortium; area burned; atmospheric circulation patterns; fire prediction; fire season severity; fire weather forecast; precipitation seasonality; predictive modelling; seasonal forecasts
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Record Last Updated:
Mar 12, 2015
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