ABSTRACT: The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) as it exists today has evolved through various forms over the decades, driven by ongoing research and decision support needs of fire management operations. The development of the next significant step in the evolution of the CFFDRS (which we refer to as Next Generation of the CFFDRS) is underway and, as part of this effort, changes to the fire behaviour models in the Canadian Forest Fire Behaviour Prediction (FBP) System are being planned. Changes will emphasis a more structure-based approach to describing fuel complexes (though basic standard fuel types will still exist) and a more direct linkage between fire spread rate prediction and fuel moisture and weather. The goal of these modifications is to allow greater flexibility and consistency in predicting fire behaviour across a broad range of fuel complexes. The underlying approach however will remain rooted in the philosophy of using field-based observations of fire spread to calibrate simple physics-based models of the key processes that influence fire behaviour.
This presentation will describe what’s proposed for the new FBP System overall as well as some of the new model forms we are testing (e.g., new surface spread models coupled to crown initiation) and how they differ from the current version of the FBP System. The presentation will be used to demonstrate how these new model forms allow more consistent generation of behavior predictions when modifying fuel structure, and also to demonstrate how use of the system will, in most cases, remain as simple as it has been in the past. The updating of the FBP System is an ongoing process. We hope that feedback from the users of the system will help shape these and future modifications and therefore discussion is encouraged after the presentation.
Phone Number: 1-877-471-8229 Conference Code: 2702809
Presentation: Adobe Connect https://ciffc.adobeconnect.com/natcon
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