Presentation by: Jim Bresch, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Laboratory
In this presentation, a tool to identify convective outflow boundaries in high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to provide guidance for fire weather forecasting is proposed. Algorithms and a graphics utility have been developed to identify and display gust fronts and similar boundaries from forecasts of NOAA's operational High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) system. The current version of the tool shows success in its application to deterministic HRRR forecasts of convective events in both simple and complex terrain, both with and without concurrent wildfire activity. When applied to an ensemble of high-resolution NWP forecasts the tool provides information about the likelihood of gust fronts. A description of the tool and results for selected cases will be presented.