Document


Title

Assessing discontinuous fire behavior and uncertainty associated with the onset of crowning (abstract)
Document Type: Conference Paper
Author(s): Miguel G. Cruz; Martin E. Alexander
Editor(s): Ronald E. Masters; Krista E. M. Galley; Don G. Despain
Publication Year: 2009

Cataloging Information

Keyword(s):
  • Australia
  • crown fire behavior
  • ensemble methods
  • Monte Carlo
  • pine plantations
  • rate of spread
Topic(s):
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Record Maintained By:
Record Last Modified: March 23, 2021
FRAMES Record Number: 9599

Description

Question: How can one integrate the natural variation in the variables influencing fire propagation associated with the prediction of crown fire behavior? Conclusions: The present work highlights the advantage of incorporating the uncertainty in the estimation of the variables influencing the fire spread process to better assess the effect of nonlinear fire phenomena, such as the onset of crowning on free-burning fire behavior. The ensemble methods used not only enable an improved description of fire potential but also extend the range of questions that can be answered by fire behavior models, namely providing probabilistic outputs that can be linked to quantitative risk analysis.

Online Link(s):
Link to this document (112 KB; pdf)
Citation:
Cruz, M.G. and M.E. Alexander. 2009. Assessing discontinuous fire behavior and uncertainty associated with the onset of crowning (abstract). Page 20 in Masters, R.E., K.E.M. Galley, and D.G. Despain (eds). The '88 Fires: Yellowstone and Beyond, Conference Proceedings. Tall Timbers Miscellaneous Publication No. 16, Tall Timbers Research Station, Tallahassee, FL.

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