Description

Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System Seasonal Fire Risk Forecasts (Wildland fire management agencies are increasingly interested in more long-term forecasts of fire business. Several short-term fire potential assessments are currently available ranging from Wildland Fire Potential Assessments (WFAS) next-day fire danger ratings to 28-day WFAS from the National Interagency Coordination Center (NICC). Missing from this collection are midterm fire potential forecasts for strategic planning of large prescribed fire events and prioritization of suppression resources. The MAPSS ecosystem modeling team is producing an ensemble of fire risk simulations based on different weather forecasts to better capture the range of potential fire risk over the midterm. Each month five different fire risk forecasts are generated from the updated 7-month weather forecasts generated by five different weather models. Fire risk forecasts are generated from the historical and forecast weather data using MC1, a dynamic general vegetation model developed by the MAPSS team. MC1 consists of interacting modules that simulate biogeography, biogeochemistry, and fire disturbance. Maps showing the distribution of the MC1-simulated fire occurrence and area burned for each weather forecast are posted on the MAPSS team's web site. A consensus forecast map is also generated showing regions where MC1 predicts fire under one or more of the weather scenarios, and the relative size of the predicted fires.