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A modeling analysis was undertaken to explore the long-term impacts of the white spruce (die-back on vegetation cover and wildfire behavior) on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. During the 1990's a significant portion of the white spruce stands were killed by infestation with the spruce bark beetle. The presence of extensive areas of dead white spruce can have significant impacts on the future distribution of vegetation types. Moreover, increased dead and down woody debris on the forest floor is believed to increase the risk of large-scale wildfires. Vegetation and wildfire dynamics were simulated over a 100-year period using FETM. A geographic information system based vegetation coverage totaling approximately 1 million acres was used to describe the initial vegetation distribution. Vegetation types were classified by species, successional stage and stand density. Simulations were run for two analysis areas, the developed coastal strip (a Critical Fire Management Zone), and the interior of the peninsula (Full, Modified and Limited Fire Management Zones). The fire frequencies (mostly human caused) in the coastal and interior zones were ~11 and 0.8 fire starts per 105 acres per year, respectively. Modeled natural disturbances included succession, browsing by ungulates, spruce bark beetle mortality in white spruce, and wildland fire. Forest management practices included in the simulations were: an ecosystem broadcast burn, and salvage logging of white spruce with and without replanting of white spruce. The initial results indicated that application of the various fuel treatments decreased the total wildfire acreage and PM10 emissions in the coastal area, but had little effect in the interior areas. In both areas the white spruce acreage increased during the first 20 years due to fuel treatments, but then gradually declined. The acres of grass and hardwood vegetation types increased dramatically over time, as many beetle-killed areas of white spruce do not grown back as white spruce unless planting occurs.

Cataloging Information

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Keywords:
  • FETM - Fire Effects Tradeoff Model
  • fuel treatment alternatives
  • Kenai Peninsula
  • spruce bark beetle
  • vegetation dynamics
  • white spruce
  • wildfire dynamics
JFSP Project Number(s):
  • 98-1-8-06
Record Maintained By: FRAMES Staff (https://www.frames.gov/contact)
Record Last Modified:
FRAMES Record Number: 7172