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Our research goal is to provide a scale-integrative planning and monitoring tool for wildland fuels and fire management that is specifically tailored to Alaska's ecological conditions and that addresses particular threats (notably climate change) to its natural fire regimes. To accomplish this, we analyze the processes that determine burn severity in the boreal forest and quantify the impacts of climate change on fire regimes and forest age structures. These results are used to further develop the Boreal ALFRESCO computer model and extend the technology transfer process initiated by our previous JFSP project (01-1-1-02). The modeling component of the study first simulated historic fire data based on an empirically derived relationship between climate and fire, and linked those simulated historic fires with the actual recorded fire perimeters for the same period. These 'ground-truth-tested' historical simulation results were then applied to the five best performing predicted climate models for Alaska used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as well as to a sixth model scenario that represents a composite of the previous five. These models have been downscaled from a global scale to one covering Alaska at 2km resolution using a well established technique that incorporates elevation to refine the local models. We currently hold the most confidence in the simulation results for the interior region of Alaska. It should be noted that the predictions included in this study become less certain as we look farther into the future, and that it isn't possible, using this data, to simulate either the exact location of future fire occurrence or vegetation type. In general, we expect climate change to result in substantial increases in landscape flammability during the coming century. Although precipitation is expected to increase during this time period as well, that increase is not likely to be sufficient to counter the increased evaporation and general drying resulting from projected higher temperatures. Preliminary results from statewide simulations identify consistent trends in projected future fire activity and vegetation response. The simulation results strongly suggest that boreal forest vegetation will change dramatically from the spruce dominated landscapes of the last century. In the wake of this fire activity, we predict that deciduous vegetation will become increasingly dominant on the landscape. This transition results from the intersection between an aging forest containing large numbers of flammable stands and rapidly warming climate that is triggering nonlinear responses in both area burned and forest succession. If boreal forests in other parts of the world cross similar ecological thresholds, together they could have globally significant effects on trace-gas emissions and radiation budgets.
Cataloging Information
- Boreal ALFRESCO
- boreal forests
- climate change
- computer modeling
- fire management
- fire regime
- 05-2-1-07