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Type: Journal Article
Author(s): Anurag Jha; Aixi Zhou
Publication Date: 2022

This article presents a machine learning (ML) based metamodeling framework for firebrand production prediction. This framework was implemented to predict the firebrand areal mass density (FAMD) and firebrand areal number density (FAND) of landing firebrands using a large set of data from full-scale laboratory firebrand production experiments. The independent variables used in our ML models to predict the dependent variables FAND and FAMD were landing (or travel) distance, wind speed, and fuel type (structural and vegetative fuels). It was demonstrated that the non-linear non-parametric ML model, K-nearest neighbors (KNN), works the best for this purpose. The KNN model predicted discrete FAND and FAMD values with an accuracy higher than 90%. The current ML model can be used to predict locations with high risk of spotting ignition potential. This research is a small step towards the bigger goal of creating a numerical firebrand production simulator.

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Citation: Jha, Anurag; Zhou, Aixi. 2022. Applying machine learning for firebrand production prediction. Fire Technology 58(5):3261-3290.

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Regions:
Alaska    California    Eastern    Great Basin    Hawaii    Northern Rockies    Northwest    Rocky Mountain    Southern    Southwest    National
Keywords:
  • FAMD - firebrand areal mass density
  • FAND - firebrand areal number density
  • fire spread
  • firebrands
  • K-nearest neighbor
  • laboratory experiments
  • machine learning
Record Last Modified:
Record Maintained By: FRAMES Staff (https://www.frames.gov/contact)
FRAMES Record Number: 66450