Description

[From the Introduction] In the October-December 2019 issue of WILDFIRE, we described a recently developed rule of thumb for estimating a wildfire’s forward spread rate when burning conditions are severe, namely when wind speeds are high and fuels are critically dry, and the time available to prepare a more exacting prediction is limited (Alexander and Cruz 2019). Based on the analysis of three distinct datasets comprising 118 high-intensity wildfire runs from around the world in forests (conifer- and eucalyptdominated) and shrublands, rate of spread was considered to be roughly 10% of the prevailing 10-m (33-ft) open wind speed, independent of the unit system used (Cruz and Alexander 2019). For example, given an open wind speed of 25 km/h (16 mi/h), the estimated wildfire spread rate during severe burning conditions would be approximately 2.5 km/h (1.6 mi/h). Here we present a summary of an evaluation study that analyzed the predictive accuracy of the 10% rule of thumb against two large, independent wildfire datasets. For further details on the study, see Cruz et al. (2020, linked below).