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Type: Journal Article
Author(s): Gary L. Achtemeier; Scott L. Goodrick
Publication Date: 2021

Abrupt changes in wind direction and speed caused by thunderstorm-generated gust fronts can, within a few seconds, transform slow-spreading low-intensity flanking fires into high-intensity head fires. Flame heights and spread rates can more than double. Fire mitigation strategies are challenged and the safety of fire crews is put at risk. We propose a class of numerical weather prediction models that incorporate real-time radar data and which can provide fire response units with images of accurate very short-range forecasts of gust front locations and intensities. Real-time weather radar data are coupled with a wind model that simulates density currents over complex terrain. Then two convective systems from formation and merger to gust front arrival at the location of a wildfire at Yarnell, Arizona, in 2013 are simulated. We present images of maps showing the progress of the gust fronts toward the fire. Such images can be transmitted to fire crews to assist decision-making. We conclude, therefore, that very short-range gust front prediction models that incorporate real-time radar data show promise as a means of predicting the critical weather information on gust front propagation for fire operations, and that such tools warrant further study.

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Citation: Achtemeier, Gary L.; Goodrick Scott L. 2021. Adding to fire fighter safety by including real-time radar data in short-range forecasts of thunderstorm-induced wind shifts. Fire 4(3):55.

Cataloging Information

Topics:
Fire Behavior    Fire Prevention    Mapping    Models    Safety    Weather
Regions:
Alaska    California    Eastern    Great Basin    Hawaii    Northern Rockies    Northwest    Rocky Mountain    Southern    Southwest    National
Keywords:
  • fire crews
  • fire mitigation
  • fire weather
  • firefighter safety
  • thunderstorms
Record Last Modified:
Record Maintained By: FRAMES Staff (https://www.frames.gov/contact)
FRAMES Record Number: 64344