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Type: Journal Article
Author(s): Michael A. Crimmins
Publication Date: 2011

Low‐frequency changes (decades to years) in precipitation related to the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are known to influence wildfire variability across the southwest United States. Little work has been done to identify whether daily fire weather variability, also important to wildfire activity, is influenced by these same climatic phenomena. This study identifies the synoptic climatological conditions associated with extreme fire weather events in the Southwest and constructs an extreme fire weather frequency data set for the period of 1958–2003 using a logistic regression technique. Interannual changes in extreme fire weather day frequencies are not linearly correlated with either ENSO or PDO, but do show significant deviations from expected values when grouped by PDO phase (positive or negative) and further subgrouped by ENSO state (La Niña, El Niño or neutral). A higher number of extreme fire weather days occur during the negative phase of the PDO, especially when accompanied by a La Niña event.

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Citation: Crimmins, Michael A. 2011. Interannual to decadal changes in extreme fire weather event frequencies across the southwestern United States. International Journal of Climatology 31(11):1573-1583.

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Keywords:
  • decadal variability
  • ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation
  • extreme events
  • PDO - Pacific Decadal Oscillation
  • wildfires
Record Last Modified:
Record Maintained By: FRAMES Staff (https://www.frames.gov/contact)
FRAMES Record Number: 58846
This document is part of the Southwest FireCLIME Annotated Bibliography, which includes published research related to the interactions between climate change, wildfire, and subsequent ecosystem effects in the southwestern U.S. The publications contained in the Bibliography have each been summarized to distill the outcomes as they pertain to fire and climate. Go to this document's record in the Southwest FireCLIME Annotated Bibliography.