Restoring arid regions degraded by invasive annual grasses to native perennial grasses is a critical conservation goal. Targeting site availability, species availability, and species performance is a key strategy for reducing invasive annual grass cover while simultaneously increasing the abundance of seeded native perennial grasses. However, the potential for establishing successful seedings is still highly variable in rangeland ecosystems, likely because of variable year-to-year weather. In this study, we evaluated the independent and combined inputs of tilling, burning, applying imazapic herbicide, and varying seeding rates on existing species and seeded native perennial grass performance from 2008 to 2012 in a southwestern Idaho rangeland ecosystem. We found that combining tilling, fire, and herbicides produced the lowest annual grass cover. The combination of fire and herbicides yielded the highest seeded species density in the hydrologic year (HY) (October - September) 2010, especially at higher than minimum recommended seeding rates. Although the independent and combined effects of fire and herbicides directly affected the growth of resident species, they failed to affect seeded species cover except in HY 2010, when weather was favorable for seedling growth. Specifically, low winter temperature variability (few freeze-thaw cycles) followed by high growing season precipitation in HY 2010 yielded 14 × more seeded perennial grasses than any other seeding year, even though total annual precipitation amounts did not greatly vary between 2009 and 2012. Collectively, these findings suggest that tilling, applying prescribed fire, and herbicides before seeding at least 5 × the minimum recommended seeding rate should directly reduce resident annual grass abundance and likely yield high densities of seeded species in annual grass - dominated ecosystems, but only during years of stable winter conditions followed by wet springs.