Document


Title

Predicting fire-regime responses to climate change over the past millennium: implications of paleodata-model comparisons for future projections of fire activity - poster
Document Type: Unpublished Work
Author(s): Adam M. Young; Philip E. Higuera; John T. Abatzoglou; Paul A. Duffy; Feng Sheng Hu
Publication Year: 2017

Cataloging Information

Keyword(s):
  • fire activity
  • fire prediction
  • fire regimes
Region(s):
Record Maintained By:
Record Last Modified: August 29, 2019
FRAMES Record Number: 55935

Description

Statistical models using historical observations are a critical tool for anticipating future fire regimes. A key uncertainty with these models is the ability to project outside the range of historical observations, often done when making future projections. Here we investigate how nonlinear, threshold relationships between climate and fire contribute to uncertainties in projections of fire activity outside the range of historical observations, by applying a set of statistical models to predict fire activity over the past ~1100 years. We ask two key questions: 1) How do nonlinear, threshold relationships impact our ability to predict fire regimes? 2) What are the implications for accurately predicting future fire regimes?

Online Link(s):
Link to this document (2.2 MB; pdf)
Citation:
Young, Adam M.; Higuera, Philip E.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Duffy, Paul A.; Hu, Feng Sheng. 2017. Predicting fire-regime responses to climate change over the past millennium: implications of paleodata-model comparisons for future projections of fire activity - poster