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Wildfires are one of the main environmental problems facing societies today, and in the case of Galicia (north-west Spain), they are the main cause of forest destruction. This paper used binary structured additive regression (STAR) for modelling the occurrence of wildfires in Galicia. Binary STAR models are a recent contribution to the classical logistic regression and binary generalized additive models. Their main advantage lies in their flexibility for modelling non-linear effects, while simultaneously incorporating spatial and temporal variables directly, thereby making it possible to reveal possible relationships among the variables considered. The results showed that the occurrence of wildfires depends on many covariates which display variable behaviour across space and time, and which largely determine the likelihood of ignition of a fire. The joint possibility of working on spatial scales with a resolution of 1 x 1 km cells and mapping predictions in a colour range makes STAR models a useful tool for plotting and predicting wildfire occurrence. Lastly, it will facilitate the development of fire behaviour models, which can be invaluable when it comes to drawing up fire-prevention and firefighting plans. © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Cataloging Information
- biodiversity conservation
- burned area
- Catalonia
- covariates
- Forest-Fire Sequences
- ignition
- land cover
- logistic regression
- Markov random fields
- mediterranean landscape
- penalized splines
- risk assessment
- Spain
- spatial analysis
- structured additive regression models
- Thematic Mapper data
- voxel
- wildfires
- wildfires
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