Identification of two distinct fire regimes in Southern California: implications for economic impact and future change
Document Type: Journal Article
Author(s): Y. F. Jin; Michael L. Goulden; Nicolas R. Faivre; Sander Veraverbeke; Fengpeng Sun; Alex Hall; Michael S. Hand; Simon J. Hook; James T. Randerson
Publication Year: 2015

Cataloging Information

  • climate change
  • climate change
  • Economic Impact
  • ecosystem dynamics
  • fire intensity
  • fire management
  • fire regime
  • fire regimes
  • Foehn winds
  • fuel management
  • fuel management
  • rate of spread
  • Santa Ana winds
  • southern California
  • wildfires
  • wind
Record Maintained By:
Record Last Modified: November 7, 2018
FRAMES Record Number: 54445
Tall Timbers Record Number: 32157
TTRS Location Status: Not in file
TTRS Call Number: Available
TTRS Abstract Status: Fair use, Okay, Reproduced by permission

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The area burned by Southern California wildfires has increased in recent decades, with implications for human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem management. Meteorology and fuel structure are universally recognized controllers of wildfire, but their relative importance, and hence the efficacy of abatement and suppression efforts, remains controversial. Southern California's wildfires can be partitioned by meteorology: fires typically occur either during Santa Ana winds (SA fires) in October through April, or warm and dry periods in June through September (non-SA fires). Previous work has not quantitatively distinguished between these fire regimes when assessing economic impacts or climate change influence. Here we separate five decades of fire perimeters into those coinciding with and without SA winds. The two fire types contributed almost equally to burned area, yet SA fires were responsible for 80% of cumulative 1990-2009 economic losses ($3.1 Billion). The damage disparity was driven by fire characteristics: SA fires spread three times faster, occurred closer to urban areas, and burned into areas with greater housing values. Non-SA fires were comparatively more sensitive to age-dependent fuels, often occurred in higher elevation forests, lasted for extended periods, and accounted for 70% of total suppression costs. An improved distinction of fire type has implications for future projections and management. The area burned in non-SA fires is projected to increase 77% (± 43%) by the mid-21st century with warmer and drier summers, and the SA area burned is projected to increase 64% (±76%), underscoring the need to evaluate the allocation and effectiveness of suppression investments. © 2015 IOP Publishing Ltd. Open access. Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license. Any further distribution of the work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation, and DOI.

Online Link(s):
Jin, Y. F., M. L. Goulden, N. Faivre, S. Veraverbeke, F. P. Sun, A. Hall, M. S. Hand, S. Hook, and J. T. Randerson. 2015. Identification of two distinct fire regimes in Southern California: implications for economic impact and future change. Environmental Research Letters, v. 10, no. 9, p. 94005. 10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094005.