Document


Title

Quantifying and monetizing potential climate change policy impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and wildfires in the United States
Document Type: Journal
Author(s): David Mills ; Russell Jones ; Karen Carney ; Alexis St. Juliana ; Richard Ready ; Allison Crimmins ; Jeremy Martinich ; Kate Shouse ; Benjamin DeAngelo ; Erwan Monier
Publication Year: 2015

Cataloging Information

Keyword(s):
  • carbon
  • climate change
  • ecosystem dynamics
  • fire management
  • vegetation surveys
  • wildfires
Topic(s):
Record Maintained By:
Record Last Modified: November 14, 2018
FRAMES Record Number: 53805
Tall Timbers Record Number: 31315
TTRS Location Status: Not in file
TTRS Call Number: Available
TTRS Abstract Status: Fair use, Okay, Reproduced by permission

This bibliographic record was either created or modified by the Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy and is provided without charge to promote research and education in Fire Ecology. The E.V. Komarek Fire Ecology Database is the intellectual property of the Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy.

Description

This paper develops and applies methods to quantify and monetize projected impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and areas burned by wildfires in the contiguous United States under scenarios with and without global greenhouse gas mitigation. The MC1 dynamic global vegetation model is used to develop physical impact projections using three climate models that project a range of future conditions. We also investigate the sensitivity of future climates to different initial conditions of the climate model. Our analysis reveals that mitigation, where global radiative forcing is stabilized at 3.7 W/m2 in 2100, would consistently reduce areas burned from 2001 to 2100 by tens of millions of hectares. Monetized, these impacts are equivalent to potentially avoiding billions of dollars (discounted) in wildfire response costs. Impacts to terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage are less uniform, but changes are on the order of billions of tons over this time period. The equivalent social value of these changes in carbon storage ranges from hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars (discounted). The magnitude of these results highlights their importance when evaluating climate policy options. However, our results also show national outcomes are driven by a few regions and results are not uniform across regions, time periods, or models. Differences in the results based on the modeling approach and across initializing conditions also raise important questions about how variability in projected climates is accounted for, especially when considering impacts where extreme or threshold conditions are important. © The Authors 2014. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com .

Online Link(s):
Citation:
Mills, D. et al. 2015. Quantifying and monetizing potential climate change policy impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and wildfires in the United States. Climatic Change, v. 131, no. 1, p. 163-178. 10.1007/s10584-014-1118-z. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-014-1118-z