The perception of the good capability of the Portuguese mainland for timber production has sustained forest expansion policies during the twentieth century. These policies led to an increase of production forests, maritime pine (Pinus pinaster) first and eucalyptus (Eucalyptus globulus) later to support establishment and development of wood based industries (sawn, pulp and paper). The most recent forest inventory from 2005/6 estimated an area of 885,000 ha for maritime pine (8.9% of the country) and 740,000 ha for eucalyptus (7.5%). Today wood based industries (sawn, pulp and paper) are important for jobs and economy, using essentially the raw material produced in the country.However, forests are at high risks of wildfires, with pine and eucalyptus burning at an annual rate of 3-4% between 1996 and 2005. This resulted in great concerns about the sustainability of the national supply of wood to forest industries. As a consequence the National Forest Strategy (DGRF, 2007) recognized the decrease of risks associated with wildfires as a main policy objective.We predict the effect of different wildfire scenarios on wood availability for pine and eucalyptus forests with Markov chain models, by using national forest inventory and wildfire data. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.