Post-fire analysis of pre-fire mapping of fire-risk: a recent case study from Mt. Carmel (Israel)
Document Type: Journal
Author(s): S. Paz ; Y. Carmel ; F. Jahshan ; M. Shoshany
Publication Year: 2011

Cataloging Information

  • fire case histories
  • fire danger rating
  • fire management
  • fire management
  • fire model validation
  • fire size
  • fire spread model
  • Israel
  • Middle East
  • rate of spread
  • International
Record Maintained By:
Record Last Modified: June 1, 2018
FRAMES Record Number: 50087
Tall Timbers Record Number: 26623
TTRS Location Status: Not in file
TTRS Call Number: Not in File
TTRS Abstract Status: Okay, Fair use, Reproduced by permission

This bibliographic record was either created or modified by the Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy and is provided without charge to promote research and education in Fire Ecology. The E.V. Komarek Fire Ecology Database is the intellectual property of the Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy.


The recent devastating wildfire on Mt. Carmel provided a unique opportunity to evaluate a fire-risk map constructed for the region, published two years ago in this journal. This largest forest fire in the history of Israel, occurred during December 2010, covering 2180 ha, burning more than half-million trees and causing the loss of life of 45 people. A study of fire risk in this area was conducted between 2007 and 2009 utilizing a combination of Monte Carlo simulation of spatial spread of fire ignition with fire behavior model (FARSITE). The fire risk map produced in 2009 is assessed here with reference to the area burnt during December 2010. The results showed that most of burnt areas corresponded to high risk levels in the risk map. According to a null model, the five lower risk levels taken together would have corresponded to 50% of the burnt area, while in fact they were presented in only 5.6% of the area. In contrast, the three highest risk levels, for which the null model expectation would be a representation of 30%, were represented in 87% of the area. Comparing the fire risk map against the map of the real recent fire provided support to the general approach, and strengthened the confidence of our fire risk model. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Paz, S., Y. Carmel, F. Jahshan, and M. Shoshany. 2011. Post-fire analysis of pre-fire mapping of fire-risk: a recent case study from Mt. Carmel (Israel). Forest Ecology and Management, v. 262, no. 7, p. 1184-1188. 10.1016/j.foreco.2011.06.011.