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Type: Journal Article
Author(s): Dale Atkinson; Mark A. Chladil; Volker Janssen; Arko Lucieer
Publication Date: 2010

Bushfires pose a significant threat to lives and property. Fire management authorities aim to minimise this threat by employing risk-management procedures. This paper proposes a process of implementing, in a Geographic Information System environment, contemporary integrated approaches to bushfire risk analysis that incorporate the dynamic effects of bushfires. The system is illustrated with a case study combining ignition, fire behaviour and fire propagation models with climate, fuel, terrain, historical ignition and asset data from Hobart, Tasmania, and its surroundings. Many of the implementation issues involved with dynamic risk modelling are resolved, such as increasing processing efficiency and quantifying probabilities using historical data. A raster-based, risk-specific bushfire simulation system is created, using a new, efficient approach to model fire spread and a spatiotemporal algorithm to estimate spread probabilities. We define a method for modelling ignition probabilities using representative conditions in order to manage large fire weather datasets. Validation of the case study shows that the system can be used efficiently to produce a realistic output in order to assess the risk posed by bushfire. The model has the potential to be used as a reliable near-real-time tool for assisting fire management decision making.

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Citation: Atkinson, Dale; Chladil, Mark A.; Janssen, Volker; Lucieer, Arko. 2010. Implementation of quantitative bushfire risk analysis in a GIS environment. International Journal of Wildland Fire 19(5):649-658.

Cataloging Information

Topics:
Regions:
Keywords:
  • air temperature
  • Australia
  • brush fire
  • bushfire simulation
  • droughts
  • fire danger rating
  • fire frequency
  • fire management
  • fire probabilities
  • fire probability
  • fuel loading
  • GIS - geographic information system
  • humidity
  • ignition
  • rate of spread
  • season of fire
  • sloping terrain
  • statistical analysis
  • Tasmania
  • wildfire threat
  • wildfire threat analysis
  • wildfires
  • wind
Tall Timbers Record Number: 25071Location Status: In-fileCall Number: Journals - IAbstract Status: Fair use, Okay, Reproduced by permission
Record Last Modified:
Record Maintained By: FRAMES Staff (https://www.frames.gov/contact)
FRAMES Record Number: 48841

This bibliographic record was either created or modified by Tall Timbers and is provided without charge to promote research and education in Fire Ecology. The E.V. Komarek Fire Ecology Database is the intellectual property of Tall Timbers.