An increasing severity in the occurrence of wildfires in Mexico has been recently associated with the activity of 'El Nino' Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A spatio-temporal analysis of fire potential indicated that indeed, catastrophic fires could occur due to unusual droughts and dry fuel conditions during ENSO years. In order to evaluate the effects that ENSO may excerpt on fire activity; estimates of fire potential were calculated for several years using satellite imagery and climatic data, and implementing a probabilistic GIS fire model. Fire probability was calcuted from multi-temporal vegetation information (derived from multi-temporal AVHRR-NDVI imagery), and drought conditions are derived from precipitation data. When applied to land cover data representing several years, the temporal trends of fire potential for the entire country were analyzed. This model is particularly useful for temporal analysis, and it has been partially validated by comparing fire locations and fire potential for the 1998-fire season. © University of Idaho 2000. Abstract reproduced by permission.