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The Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center has been making experimental, near-real-time, weekly to seasonal fire danger forecasts for the past 5 years. US fire danger forecasts and validations are based on standard indices from the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS), which include the ignition component (IC), energy release component (ER), burning index (BI), spread component (SC), and the Keetch-Byram drought index (KB). The Fosberg fire weather index, which is a simplified form of the BI, has been previously used not only for the USA but also for other global regions and is thus included for comparison. As will be shown, all of these indices can be predicted well at weekly times scales and there is even skill out to seasonal time scales over many US West locations. The most persistent indices (BI and ER) tend to have the greatest seasonal forecast skill. The NFDRS indices also have a weak relation to observed fire characteristics such as fire counts and acres burned, especially when the validation fire danger indices are used. © IAWF. Reproduced from the International Journal of Wildland Fire (J. Roads, F. Fujioka, S. Chen and R. Burgan, 2005) with the kind permission of CSIRO PUBLISHING on behalf of the International Association of Wildland Fire. (http://www.publish.csiro.au/journals/ijwf/).
Cataloging Information
- Artemisia
- biogeography
- burning intervals
- Ceanothus
- Cladium jamaicense
- coniferous forests
- conifers
- dead fuels
- distribution
- droughts
- duff
- energy
- fire danger rating
- fire frequency
- fire management
- fire size
- firebrands
- Florida
- forbs
- forest management
- fuel management
- fuel models
- fuel moisture
- fuel types
- GIS
- grasses
- grasslands
- hardwood forests
- heavy fuels
- ignition
- Ilex glabra
- Juniperus
- lichens
- litter
- live fuels
- mosses
- needles
- overstory
- Picea mariana
- Pinus banksiana
- Pinus edulis
- prairies
- precipitation
- rate of spread
- roads
- season of fire
- seasonal activities
- Serenoa repens
- shrublands
- shrubs
- sloping terrain
- south Florida
- statistical analysis
- temperature
- tundra
- understory vegetation
- wildfires
- wind
This bibliographic record was either created or modified by Tall Timbers and is provided without charge to promote research and education in Fire Ecology. The E.V. Komarek Fire Ecology Database is the intellectual property of Tall Timbers.