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Planning for old-growth forests requires answers to two large-scale questions: How much old-growth forest should exist? And where can they be sustained in a landscape? Stand-level knowledge of old-growth physiognomy and dynamics are not sufficient to answer these questions. We assert that large-scale disturbance regimes may provide a strong foundation to understand the spatio-temporal ageing patterns in forest landscapes that determine the potential for old growth. Approaches to describe large-scale disturbance regimes range from scenarios reconstructed from historical evidence to simulation of landscapes using predictive models. In this paper, we described a simulation modelling approach to determine landscape-ageing patters, and thereby the landscape potential of old-growth forests. A spatially explicit stochastic simulation model of landscape fire-forest cover dynamics was applied to a 1.8 million-ha case study boreal forest landscape to quantify the spatio-temporal variation of landscape ageing. Twenty-five replicates of 200-year simulation runs of the fire disturbance regime, at a 1-ha resolution, generated a suite of variables of landscape ageing and their error estimates. These included temporal variation of older age cohorts over 200 years, survivorship distribution at the 200th year, and spatial tendencies of ageing. This information, in combination with spatial tendency of species occurrence, constitutes the contextural framework to plan how much old-growth forest a given landscape can sustain, and where such forest could be located. © The Canadian Institute of Forestry/Institut Forestier du Canada. Abstract reproduced by permission.
Cataloging Information
- age classes
- age-class distribution
- Betula papyrifera
- boreal forest
- boreal forests
- Canada
- coniferous forests
- cover
- distribution
- disturbance
- duff
- fire frequency
- fire management
- fire regime simulation
- fire regimes
- fire suppression
- forest management
- fuel moisture
- fuel types
- ignition
- land management
- landscape ecology
- landscape ecology
- landscape management
- lightning caused fires
- mortality
- natural forest disturbances
- old growth
- old growth forests
- Ontario
- Ontario
- Picea mariana
- Pinus banksiana
- Populus
- post fire recovery
- rate of spread
- spatial simulation modelling
- stochastic models
- wildfires
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